Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents’ forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents’ forecasts
A comparison of the point forecasts and the central tendencies of probability distributions of ination and output growth of the SPF indicates that the point forecasts are sometimes optimistic relative to the probability distributions. We consider and evaluate a number of possible explanations for this nding, including the degree of uncertainty concerning the future, computational costs, delay...
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We ask whether the di¤erent types of forecasts made by individual survey respondents are mutually consistent, using the SPF survey data. We compare the point forecasts and central tendencies of probability distributions matched by individual respondent, and compare the forecast probabilities of declines in output with the probabilities implied by the probability distributions. When the expected...
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Explanations and Recommendations for Temporal Inconsistencies
This paper presents an approach to automatically providing explanations and recommendations for temporal inconsistencies within the context of constraint-based, mixed-initiative planning. In this style of planning, a user operation can cause the planner’s temporal constraint network to become inconsistent. For example, if a partial plan has been built and the user is trying to add another activ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: European Economic Review
سال: 2010
ISSN: 0014-2921
DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.10.003